As the world braces for the upcoming papal conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis, a surprising trend has emerged: a global surge in betting on who will don the white cassock next.
From online platforms to friendly wagers among friends, the race to predict the next pontiff has captivated the masses.
A secret papal conclave will select the next pontiff. A date has not been set for the meeting, but the process typically begins 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death or retirement. While the Sistine Chapel prepares for the solemn task of selecting the next leader of the Catholic Church, bookmakers worldwide are experiencing a flurry of activity.
Oddschecker, a prominent online betting platform, reports that hundreds of thousands from over 140 countries have visited their site to assess the chances of various cardinals.
In the UK alone, approximately £30,000 (around $40,000) has been wagered on the papal outcome, a notable figure considering the niche nature of this betting market.
Fantasy Papacy: The Rise of ‘Fantapapa’
In Italy, where betting on religious events is prohibited, enthusiasts have found a creative outlet: ‘Fantapapa.’
This online game allows players to assemble a team of 11 cardinals, akin to fantasy football, predicting who will ascend to the papacy.
With over 60,000 participants, the game has become a cultural phenomenon, blending reverence with recreation.
Top Contenders: The Cardinal Line-Up
Polymarket—the prediction market that famously projected a comfortable victory for President Donald Trump in 2024—already has a frontrunner to replace Pope Francis.
According to the betting platform, 70-year-old Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, has a 37 percent chance of being Francis’ successor. In his current role, he has been sometimes been described as “deputy pope” and is considered a moderate choice.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is also known for his diplomatic acumen and centrist views.
Close on his heels is Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, admired for his progressive stance and charismatic presence. Called the “Asian Francis” because of his commitments to social justice, he would be the first pope from Asia.
Péter Erdő, a 72-year-old Hungarian, is in third place with 7 percent. Known as more conservative than Francis or the first two Polymarket contenders, he was in the running for pope during the last conclave in 2013 and has since built bridges with progressive Catholics, making him a potential “compromise candidate.”
Other notable contenders include Ghana’s Peter Turkson, a potential first Black pope in modern history, and Italy’s Matteo Zuppi, recognized for his mediation efforts in global conflicts.
Betting on papal elections isn’t a modern invention. Historical records indicate that as early as the 15th century, wagers were placed on papal outcomes, with merchants and bankers deeply involved in the speculation.
In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV even threatened excommunication for those betting on papal elections, a decree that was eventually lifted in 1918.
While many view this betting trend as harmless fun, some raise concerns about the morality of gambling, especially concerning religious events. The Catholic Church’s Catechism warns against gambling becoming an enslavement, emphasizing that it becomes morally unacceptable if it jeopardizes one’s livelihood.
Let’s play cardinals. What’s your bet? .
